Why I Think We’re Gonna Win

Maddy’s Note albeit to Maddy’s Post: I generally write a post in about 40 minutes. This however is the maximum thought I have ever put in into any piece of writing (yes, it includes my examinations as well). Forgive me, but this is a dissertation sized post. You have been warned.

Seven years ago Arséne Wenger made a prediction (or a claim if you will) that his team would go unbeaten for an entire premiership campaign. This ‘preposterous’ statement was met with the contempt and derision it ‘deserved’. The press had a field day. ‘Wenger Who?’ became ‘Wenger – What?’ What followed is of course now considered one of the, if not THE finest campaign in the history of English top flight football. The Invincibles of ’03-’04 will always evoke great memories amongst the Arsenal faithful and a sense of awe in everybody else. Since then of course, our fortunes have dipped if not fallen flat. That group of merry men has been disbanded with a few retiring from the game and the most important among them moving on to other leagues in search of newer pastures (only newer, it doesn’t get any greener). With their departure, our trophy cabinet has remained maddeningly bare and that is a fact that every gooner has been repeatedly reminded of year after year.

Every year since the ‘04-‘05 season when we won our last trophy (a relatively meaningless F.A Cup) has been touted to be our last in the Top 4. Tottenham, Aston Villa and Everton have been favorites at various junctures to beat us to that last champions league spot and consign the concept of the ‘Big Four’ to the scrap heap. And I’ll admit they’ve all come dangerously close to doing just that.

Heavy spending Manchester City was this year’s dark horse on whom everyone’s money was riding. Not an unreasonable bet considering three facts. One, Aston Villa were ahead of us by 4 points end February and were looking good to go 7 points clear until 2 minutes of madness against Stoke saved the day for us. They lost the plot after that and didn’t win a single game in March and by the end of the season we were left focusing on keeping 4th safe rather than pushing for 3rd or 2nd.  Two, our best central defender and our best striker from the past two years were snapped up by City themselves and three our only summer acquisition was Thomas Vermaelen who at 183 centimeters was deemed to be way too short to be an effective premiership central defender. And yet, 3 months in, Liverpool are tottering in Seventh, City are going through a run of five successive draws and John Terry considers us, Arsenal, and not United most likely to beat Chelsea to the post. We’ve as I mentioned before scored 38 in the league in 11 games and the same fickle press which wrote us off so emphatically in August now tips us to win and win handsomely by scoring a century of goals this campaign.

No fan goes into the new season even contemplating failure. Every club has realistic ambitions and clearly all amongst the Big Four are in it to win it. I too like most Liverpool and Arsenal fans have gone into every season in the past 5 thinking ‘this is the year we do it’. However I am more convinced right now than ever before, that we can actually pull it off. It’s no longer just a case of me wanting this side to win so bad that I convince myself that they’re going to do it. The difference? Arséne Wenger has said we’ll do it. If you’ve followed the Frenchman’s words as carefully as me over the past few seasons, he’s always talked about a ‘belief’ and how he’s ‘thought’ his team is good enough. This time around he hasn’t minced words and has said his team is ready to win it and the professor’s predictions have rarely if ever been wrong.

While many saw the departure of Adebayor and Toure as the final nail in the Arsenal coffin, it has in fact proven to be a blessing in disguise. Adebayor, no doubt talented, is a notorious troublemaker whose ego to quote the Iceman in Top Gun often writes cheques his body cannot cash. If one thought Real’s player worth policies were inflated they’d openly laugh at Adebayor’s idea of his self worth. The public coveting of Milan and Barcelona that he was involved in at the start of last season threw everyone’s preparations off track. When those moves fell through the best course of action for him would’ve been to put his head down and double his commitment on the pitch. Rather he chose to amble about like he was a superstar and make outrageous monetary demands. His bust ups with Bendtner are well documented and his actions at the Eastlands this season suggest he wasn’t on best terms with Van Persie either. Toure never got along well with Gallas and when your first choice center halves are at odds personally, those ill feelings are going to translate into poor on field performances. So even though we lost a good player and an Arsenal legend we gained something that cannot be quantified; a sense of camaraderie in the squad whose importance can never be underestimated; Something incidentally that hasn’t been observed since the Invincibles of ’03-’04 when Patrick Vieira used to organize weekly team dinners.

Wenger has always been caricatured by the press as the Ebenezer Scrooge of football managers. They claim the money is there to be spent and yet he refuses to do so and the lack of quality buys is the reason we aren’t winning. My knowledge of the club finances is limited at best and I cannot say with certainty if he does indeed have a kitty of £40m to play with what with the new stadium and everything. Even if he did, would I want Arsenal to go the Manchester City, Real Madrid or the Chelsea way? I don’t know about you, but I certainly have made my share of sugar daddy jokes and it would be hypocritical of me to say the least if I welcomed an Alisher Usmanov and his millions. Wenger’s and Sir Alex’s way is the way it should be done. While your first team is winning you the trophies, breed your next generation of players. No club without a good youth system in place can sustain success. Of course, players still need to be bought. We signed Arshavin and Vermaelen for an estimated £22m and though United have spent significantly larger amounts on Berbatov and Hargreaves, they have done it on the basis of a self sustaining business model without depending on one individual or a consortium to fund their purchases.

So how, even with all this good sense did Wenger go so wrong? He didn’t actually. It’s been a combination of bad luck and some downright mercenary-like behavior that’s been the reason for our barren run. Pires, Vieira, Ljungberg and Bergkamp were all expected to leave sooner or later and Wenger had designated the quartet of Fabregas, Rosicky, Flamini and Hleb to take over the middle of the field and also brought in a clinical finisher in Eduardo. Adebayor was of course under Henry’s tutelage and had developed well. ’04-’05 saw us win the F.A cup, ’05-’06 we reached the finals of the Champions League where we suffered a heartbreaker of a loss to Barcelona. ’07-’08 was the year that this side was supposed to be fully ready to take charge. We were well on course, with a healthy 5 point lead 3/4th into the season when that Birmingham game saw us lose one of our main players and Gallas lose respect in the eyes of his team. The Liverpool CL quarterfinal heartbreak followed and the season disintegrated.

Would things have been different in the last season if we had the services of 4 of the aforementioned 5? Call it speculation or an ‘If and but’ but I have no doubt they would have. Flamini and Hleb however left for more money and Rosicky and Eduardo didn’t play at all last season; which meant people like Song, Denilson, Walcott and Bendtner were thrust into vital first team roles when they were simply not ready for it. The years of reserve team and youth team playing time they so badly required, they garnered playing the likes of Rooney, Gerrard and Lampard. Wenger could’ve dealt with the situation by buying say an available Xabi Alonso, but he would’ve, as he pointed out just killed the careers of Song, Denilson and the like. Wenger sacrificed a season or two for the sake of players he had faith in. Fans like us are short sighted and we couldn’t handle it. However fact remains that he probably did the right thing. Proof of which lies in the way our youngsters have developed into class acts and are showing that they are finally ready for the premiership.

Apart from camaraderie something else we hadn’t had since ‘03’-04 was a great captain. Vieira is probably one of the finest captains in Arsenal history, being truly inspirational. Henry was a god on the pitch and yet his performances dipped after becoming skipper and never really looked like he was going to do a great job leading the side (though he nearly did lead us to European glory). One big mistake Wenger made after Henry left was giving Gallas the armband. Firstly, there were two better candidates in my opinion; Gilberto and Toure, and his decision meant both ultimately left. Gallas couldn’t command his team’s respect and his performances left many questioning whether he deserved a place in the side let alone the arm band. The last straw was his biography where he publicly questioned his team’s attitude and Wenger’s hand was forced. He finally did what I felt he should’ve done at the start of last season and appointed a 21 year old Fabregas captain.

This move was a gamble no doubt. 21 is an age where most players don’t know if they’re going to be playing every week. 21 is an age where you look to an older mature player for guidance. 21 is an age where you certainly aren’t the finished item and are constantly developing. Not for Fabregas. He’s been a fixture in the team sheet ever since he was 18. He is our best player by a mile and has let his game do his talking; certainly there is not one player in this side who doesn’t love him AND respect him and he clearly is reveling in his new role. Yet none of his success has gone to his head and he shows just why he is the perfect man for the job when he says:

‘Captaincy hasn’t changed me one bit actually. My team mates have done a fantastic job for me. They’ve showed me that they believe and help me with everything. There has never been any trouble and I am really happy with the way things are going’

And while the plaudits pile up, the young man has his head firmly on his shoulders. He says;

‘It appears like I’m playing well because I am scoring so often. Truth is I can improve my game further’

I could argue, but I really don’t want to. It’s clear that his priority right now is (as he said in the Arsenal Pledge advert by Nike) is Trophies. Nothing else. It’s a foregone conclusion that he’s moving back to Barcelona some day. That day will be the one of the worst in my life, because we would have lost a great captain and a true Arsenal legend. That day couldn’t come later.

You have to give credit where it is due though. Gallas could’ve sulked, thrown tantrums and demanded a transfer (and he would’ve got one, he is still a class act). However he did what Adebayor should’ve done and right now, and won me and the rest of the fans back. Right now, no player in the world could tempt me to change our center half pairing.

Arséne Wenger’s football philosophy is the closest you can come to Total Football. Our style is the reason I’ve come to love Arsenal so much. Would I trade our class for effectiveness and trophies like Chelsea? Maybe in another 3 years. However I still have immense faith in the ‘Arsenal Way’  that has been deeply ingrained into every single player where even the goalkeeper looks to create opportunities to create a goal. Football is a meal; the old saying at the Arsenal goes. Why settle for a Big Mac when you can have caviar? This year along with the class, the results have come as well. It was an obvious move; the switch from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3. Barcelona showed everyone its effectiveness by winning the treble last season. Looking at our roster and seeing the likes of Fabregas, Arshavin, Van Persie, Nasri, Rosicky, Ramsey, Wilshere, Walcott, Eduardo, Bendtner, Merida and Diaby on it, it became clear that not only did we have players who were all perfect for any of the 5 attacking positions, but we had serious depth as well. Song and Denilson are now excellent enforcers well capable of breaking down opposition plays. Converting Van Persie into a Central lead striker was another masterstroke in the Henry mode and he has shown just how capable of leading the line he is. Injuries shouldn’t be as big an issue as they have been over the past few years either; unless we have a Liverpool sized pandemic, in which case you just blame the fates and accept it just is not your year this time around.

Liverpool in my opinion are not going to be able to pull it back from the situation they now find themselves in. Manchester United were over reliant on one man for some time now and their new players need some time to come out his shadow and establish their own games to be effective and I feel that they don’t have enough time to do that this season. Chelsea are looking solid now, but the loss of Drogba and Essien in January; two of their main players will be in my opinion too much to take.

And that is why I think we’re going to be champions.